Start with the baseline
Use comparable historical periods and explain your adjustments. Account for weekdays, holidays, opening hours, seasonality, pricing changes, and known local events.
- Separate volume changes from pricing changes.
- Keep unusual one-time events visible.
- Write down assumptions so another manager can understand them.
Build a range
Forecasting is a way to prepare for different outcomes. A base case alone can hide the cash and staffing consequences of lower-than-expected demand.
- Model a realistic downside and an achievable upside.
- Separate fixed costs from variable costs.
- Check capacity and cash timing, not just annual profit.
Compare actuals with assumptions
Review forecast differences on a regular cadence. A useful review asks which assumption moved and whether the operating plan needs to change.
- Keep the original forecast for comparison.
- Explain the largest differences.
- Update the next period with evidence from the review.
PUT IT TO WORK
Give the next step an owner and a review date.
Use this guide to structure a team conversation. Document the assumptions, choose a focused action, and revisit the result.
Explore restaurant calculatorsEducational operating guidance. Adapt the process to your restaurant and review professional matters with the relevant qualified advisers.